The escalation of the Euribor is unstoppable and has already touched 1% on June 16, which means that it has been rebuilt more than one and a half points in the last six months. But it aims to continue growing and with this to make the cost of mortgages for families even more expensive. If the Euribor climbed to 3%, which at the rate it is going could happen in the middle of next year, the cost for holders of a variable mortgage could rise to 3,000 euros more per year compared to what it paid at the end of December 2021, or what is the same, about 250 euros more per month. This calculation is made on an average mortgage, which according to the INE is 145,465 euros, with a term of 24 years and a spread of 0.92%.
The main mortgage reference rate is collecting in advance the , which has already been announced that it will take place next July. However, the index has been anticipating this movement since February this year. Specifically, the Euribor closed December in negative and its second lowest rate ever marked; at -0.501%. The holders of an average mortgage then paid about 531 euros a month for their loans. Now, and according to the latest data published by the Bank of Spain, the index is at 1.058%, which means that a family with this mortgage currently pays 634 euros per month. If the Euribor is at 2%, you will pay 703 euros per month and at 3%, 780 euros per month.
The growth of the rate is so fast that it has outdated even the latest forecasts and also higher ones made by different analysts. Since they estimated at the beginning of the month that the Euribor would reach 1.45% at the end of the year and yet it is already at 1%, so this level is expected before the end of 2022, and could even arrive in the third trimester. Same situation as that of and Bloomberg who estimated that the Euribor will touch 1.5% also in December of this year. The forecast of , which was made in March, is that the mortgage index would stand at 0.4% this year and 0.8% next, however it has already exceeded both levels.
financial effort
The rise in interest rates will increase the financial effort of families and companies. Spanish banks have around 65% of their mortgage portfolio referenced to variable, which means credit worth around 310,000 million euros, taking into account that the outstanding balance is almost 515,000 million.
The Bank of Spain has already warned that the greater financial burden of customers can translate into greater delinquency for entities if there comes a time when those mortgaged cannot assume the payment of the loan due to its increase in cost. Currently, the default rate of the Spanish banking sector is at the lowest levels of the last thirteen years, with 4.24%, although it is expected to increase with the end of the lack of ICO guarantees and the rise in The types. CaixaBank Research estimates that if the Euribor rises to 1.5% (it only has 0.50 points left to reach that level), the financial effort of families to cover the mortgage.
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