In 2020, the Spanish economy registered a historical decrease in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 10.8%, a figure that improves by two tenths the one advanced by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) in its forecast at the end of January, when in the absence to have all the indicators. Still, it’s the economy’s second biggest setback since 1936, when it plunged 26%.
The final data for both the quarter and the general calculation of 2020 have thrown up several surprises. And it is that the quarterly growth in the summer months (July-September) was 17.1%, .
Nor does the final figure for the fourth quarter correspond to the initial one: in the last period of the year the economy did not grow (0.0%) despite the fact that the forecasts indicated that it would. In the interannual rate, an improvement is registered: the GDP for the fourth quarter contracted by 8.9% (-9.1% in the data advance), compared to the decrease of 8.6% in the previous quarter.
But the new National Accounts data published this Friday by the INE also modulate the levels of the first months of last year. The initially published decrease of 5.3% has been somewhat higher, 5.4%, while the estimate for the second quarter (-17.9%) moderated one tenth, .
Household consumption sank 12.4%, its biggest drop since 1970
As for national demand, this subtracted 8.8 points from GDP, 10.2 points less than in 2019, while the negative contribution of external demand was 2 points (2.6 points less than in 2019).
According to Statistics, public spending in 2020 registered its greatest increase since 2009, with growth of 3.8%, while household consumption sank by 12.4%, its largest decline in the series that began in 1970. investment, meanwhile, fell by 11.4% in 2020, its biggest drop since 2009.
If by volume the fall was 10.8%, in the whole of 2020, GDP at current prices stood at 1,121,698 million euros, -9.9% compared to 2019 (-123,074 million euros ).
By sectors, the only one that increased its gross value added (GVA) in 2020 was agriculture, which grew by 5.3%. On the opposite side, construction fell 14.5%, services fell 11.1%, and industry and energy fell 9.6%.
Productivity per hour worked fell by 3%
Compensation of employees fell by 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, less than what gross operating surplus fell (-11.6%), while productivity per hour worked fell by 3% and productivity of equivalent jobs fell by 3.9%. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the hours worked decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, three tenths more than in the previous quarter, and the number of equivalent jobs fell by 5.2%, four tenths more, which is translates into the destruction of 962,000 full-time jobs in one year.
The number of hours actually worked increased by 1% compared to the third quarter, 23.7 points less than in the previous quarter. In year-on-year terms, the number of hours actually worked increased three tenths, to -6.1%.
The interannual variation rate of hours worked in the industrial branches stood at -6.9%, which is 2.0 points more than in the previous quarter. In the case of Construction, the interannual variation was -4.6%, with a drop of seven tenths compared to the previous quarter. Hours worked in the Services Sector increased their interannual variation by two tenths with respect to the previous quarter, to -6.3%. And finally, the primary branches presented a variation of -1.4%, with a decrease of one tenth compared to the previous quarter.
1936, 2009, 2020…
The setback that the economy has experienced in the year of the pandemic has been the greatest since 1936, according to the database created by the economist Leandro Prados de la Escosura in his work Spanish Economic Growth (1850-2015). During the first year of the Spanish Civil War, GDP plummeted more than 26%. Otherwise, the coronavirus has managed to paralyze the country by imposing the need for restrictions on almost all activities, especially those that support much of the Spanish economy.
If compared only with the registered series, the largest annual decline in GDP until 2020 was recorded in 2009 during the financial crisis, although the fall is not comparable: then it was 3.8%. In addition, the fall represents the first annual contraction in GDP since 2013, when it fell by 1.4%.
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