Madrid, Jan 20 (EFECOM).- The average price of a barrel of oil during 2008 will be the most expensive in history, around 80 dollars, compared to 72 dollars in 2007 -current record-, due to the world financial crisis unleashed in the United States, according to a report by the French bank Société Generale.
That entity’s analysts point out that the performance of most raw materials is dominated by the development of the financial crisis caused by the problematic US high-risk mortgages (“subprime”).
They explain that the increase in the price of oil, gold or cereals has been aggravated in the last half year by the expectations of high inflation that the central banks cannot currently curb with rate hikes due to the economic slowdown caused by the crisis and that could turn into a recession in the US.
In fact, the consensus of analysts estimates that the United States Federal Reserve will lower the price of money by 0.25 or 0.50 percentage points on January 30 from the current 4.25 percent, a possibility that has been hinted at by the president of that institution, Ben Bernanke, in an attempt to dodge the recession.
In Europe, opinions are more mixed, but it is expected that the European Central Bank will not move at least until summer, despite recent threats of increases from its president, Jean-Claude Trichet, by then probably lower them from 4 percent and boost the slowing economy, according to some analysts.
For this reason, the average price of “black gold” in 2008 will even exceed what is paid in the following years until 2012, since of the 80.4 and 80.9 dollars that will be paid this year for the Brent (Europe) and West Texas (USA), respectively, will fall below 75 dollars in five years, according to Société Generale.
That entity predicts that the 80 dollars of 2008 will become cheaper in the following four years and will even cost, in the case of Brent, an average of 69 dollars during the year 2010 and 73 dollars two years later.
The average for West Texas will be 75 dollars in 2009, according to the study data, and during the following years the figures will be similar until during 2012 something less is paid: 74 dollars for each barrel, loaded with 159 liters of crude .
Those figures are lower than the records reached during last year, when the barriers of 80, 90 and 100 dollars were surpassed for the first time, but the annual average of 2007 was just over 72 dollars in the two categories of raw.
European and US barrel prices ended last week down just over 2 percent to $89.23 for Brent and $90.57 for West Texas.
The report also predicts that gold, like other precious metals, will rise this year and end at an average of $725 per ounce (31.10 grams), up from last year’s average of $697, for which it will have to move away. of the current 883 dollars and the historical record of 907 dollars marked last Monday.
From 2009 to 2012, the evolution will be different, according to Société Generale analysts, since it will gradually drop until it is paid at an average of 500 dollars per ounce in 2012. EFECOM
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