The return to the dividend of the tourism sector will take place progressively as a trickle year after year, after the four Ibex 35 listed companies -Aena, Amadeus, IAG and Meliá Hotels- canceled all or part of the payment planned this year with a charge to 2019 and with expected losses for 2020 in all cases. According to analysts, already next year charged to 2020, despite the collapse of air traffic. It will be followed by Amadeus charged to the 2021 accounts, IAG, in 2022, and the last to recover shareholder remuneration will predictably be Meliá Hotels, although there are no forecasts beyond 2023.
The airport manager is the best positioned to recover the dividend sooner, not only within the national sector, but also among its European peers -such as Fraport and Aéroports de Paris-. After canceling the payment of 7.58 euros planned for last April, analysts believe that it will be next year when he recovers his only annual payment. The consensus collected by FactSet expects 0.4 euros charged to 2020 (somewhat more optimistic is the one prepared by Bloomberg, which raises this amount to 2.1 euros).
The firm will present its results for the third quarter of the year on the 28th. Intermoney expects losses to increase to 223 million euros, after registering “an 80% drop in air traffic in September” and 70% in annual terms . Charged to 2021, according to analysts, Aena will distribute 3.15 euros per share; up to 5.24 euros in 2022 and 6.11 in 2023, which yield 4.9%.
The Amadeus dividend will be the following and will be charged to the 2021 accounts, after it canceled this year’s complementary dividend of 0.74 euros (out of a total of 1.30). The consensus foresees 0.39 euros per title in 2021; 0.77 in 2022 and 1.28 in 2023, recovering pre-pandemic levels. Its profitability, at current prices, is 2.7%. “IATA lowered its air traffic forecasts last week from 63% to 66% drop for 2020, which reflects,” they say from JP Morgan, who transfer the numbers. “Amadeus will not recover either the EBITDA or the pre-Covid income until 2023”, an approach that they share at Citi. The consensus forecasts losses of 186 million in the third quarter of the year, 42% lower than the second. It will present results on November 6, the same day as Meliá.
The hotel chain will be the last to recover its payments. There are not even forecasts that it will do so before 2022 and, with a view to 2023 still, although it is expected to be the year in which the sector finally recovers.
Analysts do expect IAG to recover its remuneration in 2022, with 4 cents per share that yield 3.5% and in 2023 it would pay 0.11 euros, half of what was expected this year. “With a 70% drop in flights operated in the third quarter, returning to the 50% forecast by the firm by the end of the year seems too ambitious,” they point out in Bloomberg Intelligence. It presents results on October 30.
Losses beyond 2020
IAG is the most bearish firm on the Ibex, with losses of 75%, followed by Meliá Hotels -as the third company from the bottom- with 68%. Amadeus yields 34% and Aena, 26% so far this year. The market discounts historical losses for IAG, of 3,600 million, in 2020, which will continue in 2021, “only” with 76 million, to earn 1,400 million in 2022. Meliá Hotels, on the other hand, will drag the red numbers until 2022, according to forecasts of the analysts.
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