will close the 2021 financial year with a net profit of 5,195 million euros, an amount that will more than triple the 1,611 million achieved in 2020 in pro forma figures and before integrating. A key to the accounts are the 4,300 million that the negative goodwill adds up precisely due to the union via absorption of both banks, although they also support 1,521 million in extraordinary costs destined to finance the restructuring derived from the ERE for more than 6,400 employees and the expenses associated with technological integration.
However, the accumulated result between January and September without the atypical mergers The forecasts for the whole of the 2021 financial year correspond to FactSet and predict that only in the fourth tight quarter the group earned 445.57 million, also giving greater scope to futures because it expects that in the fourth quarter of this 2022 the result will grow by 32% and add 589 million.
In favor of last year’s result, in addition to the millionaire goodwill, and the disinvestment in Comercia Global Payments, they would play with gross capital gains that some experts raise to 327 million. However, the sale of Erste Bank would also drop by around 31% the recorded results of companies owned by the equity method.
On the positive side, analysts forecast a strengthening of the capital piggy bank and an increase in commission income of between 3 and 7%, particularly supported by the sale of savings and asset management products, and with a collection “weaker” in the commissions linked to traditional operations due to the stability of banking activity.
It will be key to improving the gross margin, since the expectation is that the interest margin will fall due to pressure from negative rates, which will also continue during 2022 and 2023, and that expenses will rise due to the costs inherent in the integration.
The improvement of the account will also help the relief in the burden of provisions, while in negative it could impact that Bankia had with Mapfre and whose termination will cost 570.8 million.
The focus will be on the first results after assembling systems and running the merger, with expectations, in addition, of knowing some detail of the future strategic plan where the merged group must set the roadmap in financial and business objectives.
merger synergies
In profitability, CaixaBank wanted to beat the 12% ROTE in its 2018-2021 individual strategic plan and lowered the threshold to 10% precisely because of the merger and the efforts it was going to commit -in September it reached 9.6% without the extraordinary integration-. The attention will also capitalize on the progress of the business when the entity aims to obtain 290 million in additional income and adjust its cost item by another 940 million due to the synergies of the operation.
Regardless of the future, the figures considered by analysts for 2021 place CaixaBank in second place on the podium in results, only surpassed by him -they expect him to earn 7,750 million- and ahead of -they expect 4,300 million-. However, it is a position reinforced by outliers. FactSet’s forecast is that this year’s profit will be around 2,494 million. It would be half of last year as it lacked the impact of the goodwill and would beat the result prior to the merger by 55%.
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