Chrysanthemum, apple tree, tulip, daffodils, hydrangeas, violets, carnations or the sunflower itself are some of the flowers that characterize and add color to autumn, combating the pessimism that reigns after the summer vacation period. When September anticipates the summer farewell, a time begins in which the imaginary has been filled with an ocher color by the fall of the leaves, but which also coincides with the flowering of many species of plants that delight insects.
Like them, the stock market has entered a somewhat gray area, but that does not exclude that investors can benefit from it. Specifically, the EuroStoxx 50, which is the reference on which Europe can be based and, consequently, the Spanish stock market, has entered a lateral market that has as its floor and base the minimums of the year (3,360 points in July) and as ceiling and resistance the highs of the course that marked in January and that go through 4,392 points. This price range is 28 percentage points, something that allows the investor to obtain great returns even without leaving these levels.
“From that floor that it marked in July, the European reference rebounded more than 13% and, as soon as this correction is over, everything indicates that another segment could be seen on the rise, but first we will have to see how much the fall deepens, which At the moment it has already corrected 38.2% of this upward stretch”, explains Joan Cabrero, adviser to Ecotrader. “Now, if it loses this first support, at least we will see falls to the area of old resistance, now support, of 3,580-3,600 points and I do not even rule out that we could witness a fall to 3,515/3,530 points, which would be a correction of 61.80/66% of the rebound, before seeing a bullish counterattack,” he adds.
More focused on what is the Spanish stock market, the expert places the aforementioned floor at 7,300 points where the Ibex 35 marked its lows for the year while the objectives to be achieved go through 8,900/9,000 points, so here the range of action close to 24 percentage points in the best of cases. “During the last few sessions the Ibex 35 has been correcting the last upward movement that took it from 7,765 points to 8,530 points”, argues Cabrero.
“With the reach this week of 8,150 points, the Ibex 35 has already corrected half of all that rise described and from that potential turning point and theoretical support it could try to resume the rises, something that I believe should happen between 8,150 and 8,000/8,055 points,” he adds. “A new upward momentum could lead the Ibex 35 to attack the 8,900-9,000 point area again, which is where the downward trend now runs that arises from uniting the highs of June and November 2021 and the highs of the past month of May and this hypothesis is the one that I will assess as most probable as long as a possible cut does not deepen below 8,000/8,055 points”, concludes the technical analyst. In order to take advantage of this situation, short- and medium-term purchase levels have been adjusted for the main names on the Spanish stock market.
Banking, near shopping area
The year began with the banking sector leading the increases throughout Europe and this is what allowed the Spanish stock market to take advantage of the rest of the European markets. Thanks to the new environment of interest rate rises, this time also in Europe, banks have quoted these expectations, although they have subsequently deflated due to fears of a slowdown in growth or directly a more than probable recession, leaving some of the large national entities even trading at losses this year, as is the case of Banco Santander, which is the firm in the sector that is closest to its purchase area, delimited at 2.4 euros. However, a second entry could be put at 2.15 euros. BBVA, CaixaBank and Sabadell are also less than 5% away from their respective short-term entry zones, so a hypothetical return to support would open a clear buying window in the leading sector of the Ibex 35.
Naturgy, option in the ‘utilities’
Another of the leading sectors in the Spanish stock market is that of utilities. Like the banks, they have been in the spotlight in recent months both due to the rise in prices (which does not benefit everyone equally) and due to the regulatory changes that have been proposed to combat energy inflation.
The big name in this industry is Iberdrola, where the Ecotrader expert has pointed out 10.4 euros as the first entry point, an area that is still at 5% of its current levels. However, to have a good option at Naturgy, one would only have to expect a drop of just over 2.5%, by setting its optimal price at 29 euros. A very different case is that of Repsol, which has been crowned the most bullish firm on the Ibex this year thanks to the rise in oil prices. In this situation of free rise, a correction of around 8% would be required, so it is far from entering the buying radar, as is the case with Solaria after an advance of 40% on the stock market this year.
Cellnex and Inditex, in the buying area
Two of the large companies on the Ibex are also two of those that are closest to their optimal levels to take first place. These are Inditex (which, precisely, they want to buy back for La Cartera de elEconomista.es) and Cellnex. The textile is just 1.3% down from crossing its entry level, which Cabrero places at 23 euros per share. Who wants to wait for a greater correction or try to do it in two sections, can set 21 as the next optimal level to enter Inditex. In the case of the torrera, which is one of the most punished companies this year in the entire national selection, the 40.5 euros are a good opportunity, also at just over 1% of current prices. These levels, in fact, have already been tempted several times during the year. The particularity of Cellnex is that it receives the best recommendation of the entire Ibex 35. The other large teleco, Telefónica, which is having a good year, has its optimal entry price at 4 euros, 5% below its current price .
In tourism, Amadeus
Although the tourism sector does not move as many stock market points as banking or energy, it is one of the most important for the national economy. The data for this summer is good and the companies are recovering their tone after the collapse that the coronavirus crisis has brought to their business. In this aspect, IAG is the only one that has lagged behind in the recovery due to the large debt it holds and the logistical problems that the sector is now facing (they announced a reduction in capacity this week). Its titles are at a 3% drop in their purchase area, less than Aena, which is almost 5%, and Meliá, which must fall by more than 8% to be attractive. In contrast, Amadeus is only 2% away from the 54.5 euros where Cabrero sets its entry price.
Sacyr, on watch
Typically, the buy signal is triggered by a fall to the support zone, but sometimes the strength that can reveal the attractiveness of a company comes precisely from overcoming some resistance. This is the case of Sacyr, which, if it beats 2.4 euros, “would be a very clear purchase option from Ecotrader,” says Cabrero. It is given that the concessionaire, in addition, is one of the favorites of the analysts and receives the second best recommendation of the entire Ibex 35. If, on the contrary, it continues to decline in the stock market, an entry window would also open in the 1, 9 euros.
The rest of the companies in the Spanish construction sector have different situations since while Ferrovial is barely 2% of its price where to put the first foot of the investment. ACS is more than 3% and FCC more than 4%.
Option in the ‘dogs’ of the bag?
A not uncommon way of investing is to look at which companies are being hit the hardest and clearly bet on their recovery. They are the dogs of the bag, and it is something that is usually seen at the beginning of the year. This course, to date, the values that are doing the worst are Fluidra, Rovi and Grifols. The pool manufacturer is at a 2020 low after losing more than half of its value. It has the greatest potential of the Ibex, one of the best recommendations too, but for Cabrero it must first form some reliable ground and for that it must exceed 17 euros. If not, we would have to expect a fall to 14 euros where it finds the next support.
In the case of Rovi, which has already lost more than 30% since the first of January, it receives its best recommendation since January and this week it has even entered the Top 10 for Ecotrader Fundamentals. For Rovi to be a real entry option, it must go back 5% to 48.6 euros. Finally, Grifols’ situation is different as it is in free fall and does not have reliable support up to 10 euros per share, so it still has to fall another 20% to reach that price.
In addition to all these companies, which are listed on the Ibex, there are always good options on the Continuous Market as well. For example, Línea Directa, Catalana Occidente and Applus Services are also close to their respective optimal purchase levels. On the contrary, in Ence or in Grenergy, a correction of more than 10% must still be expected for their price to be attractive as a technician.
Facebook Comments
Disqus