The PSOE-A would win the regional elections in Andalusia again this Sunday, December 2, although it could lose between two and six deputies compared to the 47 achieved in March 2015, while PP-A and Ciudadanos (Cs) would remain far from add together an absolute majority -set at 55 seats- and the entry of VOX into the new Andalusian Parliament would not be guaranteed, according to two polls published this Monday by La Razón and eldiario.es.
According to these polls, the PSOE-A can achieve between 41 and 45 deputies compared to the 47 achieved in 2015, while the PP-A would be left with between 25 and 29 -for the 33 of the previous Andalusian elections-, Cs would experience the greatest growth until reaching between 15 and 17 deputies -compared to nine in the last legislature-, and Adelante Andalucía, the confluence in which Podemos and IU concur, would manage to improve results with between 23 and 25 seats. In 2015, both forces presented themselves separately to the elections, obtaining a total of 20 deputies; specifically, Podemos reached 15 and IULV-CA, five.
Both the survey of the newspaper La Razón, prepared by NC Report, and that of eldiario.es, carried out by Celeste Tel, are based on 1,000 telephone interviews carried out between November 19 and 23.
The NC Report poll for La Razón predicts a victory for the PSOE-A with between 41 and 43 deputies and a 34.5% vote intention -0.9 points less than the 35.4% achieved in 2015-, followed by the PP -A, that with 22.3% of votes -4.4 points less than in the previous Andalusian elections- would achieve between 26 and 29 deputies.
For its part, Adelante Andalucía would win between 23 and 25 seats with 19% of the vote -in 2015, Podemos and IU added a total of 21.6%-, and Ciudadanos, between 15 and 17 parliamentarians with 14.8%o of votes compared to the 9.3 reached in 2015. VOX could enter the Andalusian Chamber for the first time with 3.8% of votes that could range from leaving him without representation to making him add two deputies.
In the Celeste Tel survey published by eldiario.es, the PSOE-A wins with 35.8% of the vote, four tenths more than in 2015, although it would remain with between 43 and 45 seats compared to the current 47, while the PP-A remains in second place with between 25 and 27 seats -now it has 33- with a support of 21.6%, 5.2 points less than three and a half years ago.
Adelante Andalucía would add between 23 and 24 seats with 21.2% of the votes, between three and four parliamentarians more than those obtained by Podemos and IULV-CA separately in March 2015, although with four tenths less support at the polls. Cs would be close to doubling its 9 seats in the last regional elections with between 16 and 17 with 15% of the votes, while VOX would have between 0-1 parliamentarians with 3.2% of the votes.
On the other hand, a survey by Deimos Estadística published on Monday by Andalusian newspapers such as La Voz de Almería or Marbella Confidencial predicts a victory for the PSOE-A with 44-48 deputies and also leaves PP-A and Cs without the possibility of adding an absolute majority , since both parties would reach, in the best scenario for their interests, 49 seats (PP from 30 to 33 and Cs from 19 to 22).
According to this poll, based on 1,200 interviews carried out between November 20 and 23, Adelante Andalucía would be in third place with between 19 and 22 parliamentarians, while Vox would achieve 2.75% of the votes that it assigns from 0 to 3 seats with “remote” possibility of achieving representation in the autonomous Chamber.
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