The calm and tranquility that the first days of August have offered begins to be truncated. The week’s macroeconomic agenda is the best example: after the respite of the last sessions, it begins to be filled again with important events, such as the publication of GDP growth figures in Germany or the US, the manufacturing PMIs of a handful from countries such as France, Japan, Germany or the United Kingdom or oil inventories.
The publication of all these references will be key for a market that has once again focused all eyes on the euro/dollar. The evolution of the cross between the two currencies has gained relevance in recent sessions after approaching parity again (this Friday it reached 1.0052 dollars per euro). Above all, after the heated debate that has been put on the table by the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the in the United States, which focused on what should be in the next rate meetings that are held.
Be that as it may, for now the US dollar has been gaining attractiveness for investors. The greenback closed the week at less than 1% of its all-time highs, as reflected in the evolution of the Dollar Index, which includes the evolution of the US currency against a weighted basket of the most traded currencies on the planet.
And it is that, the North American currency registers an advance close to 2.5% from the minimums that it marked this same month of August after starring in one of its most bullish weeks of the year. “The dollar’s rally was compounded by a series of comments from the Federal Reserve that kept US interest rate expectations elevated, near recent highs. This combination, when compared directly to deteriorating US economic conditions in Europe and China, led brokers to continue prioritizing the dollar”, they point out from the firm specializing in currency trading operations Monex, while emphasizing the bullish behavior of the US currency this week.
On the side of the balance corresponding to the euro, they continue to increase, but the evolution of the single currency in the market does not react with increases to this trend. “The single currency remains stagnant due to the growing risks of stagflation, which have caused bond yields to shoot up even more,” they also point out from Monex.
In that sense, the data from and the US that will be published this Thursday will be decisive to see what direction the most traded currency cross on the planet takes. Earlier, on Tuesday, the German country will release manufacturing PMI data for August. Across the Atlantic, pending US home sales due out on Thursday will also have to be watched, especially after July existing home sales came out slightly worse than experts expected this past week. and “contributed to maintaining nervousness about the health of real estate in the country,” they say from Banco Sabadell.
petroleum earrings
Beyond the macroeconomic data from Europe and the US, this week we must keep an eye on the interest rate on loans from the People’s Bank of China, which will release them this Monday, and on Wednesday’s oil inventories, which will influence the behavior of a barrel of crude oil, which is still more than 25% away from the annual highs registered in June
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