The merger that generates the highest theoretical value and the lowest implementation risk would be the one starring the and the . This is one of the conclusions reached by Álvarez & Marsal in a new report on the financial sector in Spain. After , the consultant’s experts consider that the union of the entity chaired by and is the most attractive corporate operation in the system.
Although Álvarez & Marsal does not anticipate the probability that this integration could have in the future, it does not rule out that it may take place in the next two years, taking into account the challenges that the sector is facing and the difficulties that pan-European transactions still cause right now. The analysis company specialized in the financial sector and debt restructuring, considers that the union of Sabadell with Santander is much more attractive than BBVA, both for the return on investment and for the execution risks.
Its managers also maintain that an alliance with a European group currently involves a lot of uncertainty, after trying to continue alone, because the cost synergies would be minimal and the rules of the game and the guarantee funds are different in each country of the Old Continent.
It must be taken into account that , feeling comfortable with the position he has after acquiring Popular three years ago and that his project is to reduce costs alone to increase profitability.
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In the study, Álvarez & Marsal points out that , which is the only one that has been approved to date, is the operation that has the greatest implementation risks. Even so, he highlights that the return on investment for the Catalan group will be 200%.
In the case of the merger of and , for which , this return reaches 270%, according to the consultant’s calculations. Levels that would be surpassed by Sabadell’s equation with , although this combination would also generate relevant execution risks.
In recent weeks, after the breakdown of negotiations with BBVA, the market suggests that Sabadell could try again to reach an agreement with the Basque entity next year.
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