The symposium of American central bankers in Jackson Hole has closed with a clear message for the economy of the country and the rest of the world: the fight against inflation is going to cause “suffering”. These were the terms established last week that have made investors see the renewed possibility of attending another 75 basis point rise in interest rates in the country at the September meeting.
The European market reacted to the closure of Jackson Hole with a cut in the main parks of the Old Continent. He left 0.9% this Monday, the same percentage as the EuroStoxx 50. The closing of last week meant for the Spanish selective to reach alarm levels that open up the possibility of seeing greater falls in the main indicator of the stock market in our country. Not in vain, the Ibex 35 chains nine consecutive sessions cutting its value. But the litmus test of the selective will be seen between now and the close of next Friday, if it fails to close above 8,000 points.
the Ibex 35 must close the week above that reference for us to see a sign of strength in the Spanish stock market in the short term. A red line that, for now, was crossed yesterday by trading in areas not seen since mid-July. And although an upward counterattack is not ruled out, the pressure of inflation also in Europe, and with a war going on in its garden, makes it consider the worst scenarios. Thus, according to Cabrero, the next support to look at within the selective would be the area of 7,760 points, the point from which the last rebound of the selective originated. And if those 8,000 points are not recovered and maintained at the close of the first Friday in September, the Ibex 35 faces falls of 8.6% to the area of 7,300 points, equivalent to the 3,000 points of the .
From less bad to bad
For being one of the main references of the Old Continent, the EuroStoxx 50 perfectly shows the two scenarios that are opening up for equities in Europe from a technical point of view: one with a lateral movement and another more bearish that will force to repeat levels not seen since the outbreak of the coronavirus.
The first would mean that the EuroStoxx would maintain 3,500 points. If so, a lateral movement could be seen within the index between 3,400 and 4,400 points, which are the maximum for 2022, in addition to the first resistance of the index. And the EuroStoxx could move in this range for more than a year, according to the Ecotrader expert. The worst scenario in the medium term would imply seeing the European stock market at levels not seen since the arrival of the coronavirus vaccine, in November 2020, and in the area of 3,000 points, which would mean a fall since its current price of 12%.
The ones that most subtracted from the Ibex
The nine consecutive sessions that the Ibex accumulates in negative territory have not left any of the values that make it up indifferent. On Monday, red marked the selective of the 35, with 77% of the companies in the negative field and four of them marked minimums for the year -Fluidra, Grifols, Rovi and Indra-. The falls increased by more than 3% for four firms -Solaria, Amadeus, Acciona Energía and Meliá- and another three-suffered declines of more than 2% -Rovi, Grifols and Acciona-.
It was at the head of these declines, with a fall that was close to 8% and which constitutes its biggest drop since the end of March. After reaching highs for the year on August 25, the renewable plummeted more than 11% in just two sessions. Stop leading the Ibex in 2022 and the 42% that was recorded on Thursday before the falls to 26.2%.
Despite being the biggest drop, Solaria, however, was not the company that subtracted the most points from the Ibex. The decline of Amadeus, of 3.98%, took over 18 points from the national selective. Iberdrola and Inditex, for their part, made the Spanish stock market fall by around 18 and 9 points respectively. Their slumps weren’t as pronounced and both were down about 1%.
Among the ten most bearish of the day were two firms from the pharmaceutical sector: Rovi and Grifols. Their falls of 2.96% and 2.54% placed them at annual lows. Rovi loses 34.28% in the year and is the second most bearish in the Ibex, after the collapse of Fluidra in 2022.
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