Before the illegal referendum of 1-O was held, Catalonia was one of the regions with the highest economic growth in Spain. Specifically, between September 2016 and the same month in 2017, Catalan GDP grew by 3.6%. Above the average for Spain, which maintained growth of 3.1% in this period of time. And only surpassed by the Valencian Community, whose growth was 3.8%.
The labor market in Catalonia, before 1-O, also experienced a better performance than that of the rest of the Spanish regions. Unemployment in Catalonia fell year-on-year, that is, from October 2016 to October 2017, by 9.45%. A decrease that exceeded the national average, which did so by 8.34%.
In Catalonia more employment was created than in the rest of Spain. During the aforementioned period, affiliation to Social Security grew by 3.76% in the Catalan region. While in Spain, this growth was 3.46%.
In the same way, and taking recent years as a reference, Catalonia has experienced an economic growth above the average of the rest of the Spanish autonomies. In fact, after the worst of the crisis, the economic recovery in the Catalan autonomous community was developing faster than in other regions of Spain.
Debacle after the independence order
However, the independence movement has hindered the pace of recovery in Catalonia, seriously deteriorating the economic environment in this region (and in Spain). Because the impact of secessionism on the Catalan economy is being terribly pernicious.
So much so that the Bank of Spain has recently warned that the economic effect of the independence challenge in the long term will be more harmful in Catalonia than in the other autonomies. In this sense, the BdE estimates that Catalonia could enter a recession, at least, during the next year. And, in the event that political uncertainty continues, the Catalan economy could run the risk of suffering serious stagnation.
One of the data that confirms that a pernicious economic scenario is taking shape in Catalonia is that relating to the rise in unemployment in this region. As was known last Friday, unemployment increased by 14,698 people in the Catalan autonomy, the largest increase in absolute terms of all the autonomous communities.
The indicator relative to consumer confidence also fell by 3.6% in October. Based on all this, the economic slowdown in Catalonia, caused by the independence challenge, can be considered a fact.
Thus, the main organizations with an economic and financial profile are changing their growth forecasts for Catalonia downwards.
Work centers continue in Catalonia
But, despite all these conditions, the Catalan GDP could also have the possibility of recovering next year. Above all, if after the next regional elections on 21-D, the constitutionalist parties manage to form an absolute majority that manages to provide legal certainty and attract foreign investment to Catalonia.
In a supposedly stable political scenario, led by a constitutionalist government installed in the Generalitat, a large number of companies that have left Catalonia could consider returning to this autonomous community.
Let us remember that although many companies have changed their registered office outside of Catalonia (and some of them also the tax address, both in terms of legal level both domiciles do not have to coincide), the centers of work activity, the factories, etc., of the they still remain implanted in this autonomy.
Therefore, companies that have fled from Catalonia and wish to return to their region of origin would only have to change their registered office again. This time, in reverse.
Collateral damage from the independence movement
However, and regardless of the outcome of the regional elections, secessionism has already caused serious collateral damage to Catalan companies.
Whether or not Catalan companies have moved their registered offices to other Spanish regions, they are suffering, or could suffer in the short term, a commercial boycott in Spain.
Because, Spanish consumers consider that certain executives, top shareholders and founders of many of these companies are part of the Catalan independence movement. By action in certain cases. And, in most of them, by omission.
Spanish suppliers affected
The boycott of Catalan products could trigger a domino effect, which would negatively affect the economy of other Spanish regions.
Because a large percentage of Catalan companies use other companies and freelancers located in different autonomous communities, who act as suppliers.
Madrid, Aragon, Andalusia, Valencia and Galicia are the 5 autonomies with the largest number of companies and self-employed providers of Catalan companies.
The productive sectors most affected could be commerce, industry and agriculture, as they are the most dependent on Catalan companies.
Companies from the rest of Spain benefited
On the other hand, the aforementioned boycott of Catalan products could also increase the profits of a multitude of competing companies, originating from other regions of Spain. These companies manufacture products and design services with the same or better quality than those offered by Catalan companies.
These are companies whose brands do not enjoy a strong position in the market at the national level. Especially, considering that in certain sectors, the leadership in the Spanish market has traditionally been held by Catalan companies.
Consequently, the purchase intention of Spanish consumers has not opted, to date, for the products and services offered by these non-Catalan companies.
In any case, these non-Catalan companies are facing their great opportunity. Both to create a brand and, therefore, position itself in the Spanish market, and to demolish the false myth that Catalonia is the business region par excellence in Spain.
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