At the time of a blood draw, they ask you for patience, a virtue that Grifols investors are not taking into account in the short term. The price of its stock accumulates in year one.
This has led the company to trade at levels not seen since 2013 and below its 2020 low (the only one for the Ibex 35) when the stock market collapsed due to the effect of the coronavirus. And it is that the market is not accepted the evolution of the firm’s accounts since the end of 2021.
In the first six months of the year, Grifols registered a 40% cut -up to 152.8 million euros- in net profit compared to 2021 (in the case of adjusted EBITDA it is almost 12%). And in the short term, the picture does not seem to improve, according to forecasts of the market consensus collected by FactSet. However, it is in the long term that you have to think with Grifols in the portfolio and take advantage of that if you take into account its average target price.
At the close of this Wednesday there are no investment firms that see Grifols below 15 euros. This goal is the one defended by JP Morgan or, more recently, by Bankinter, which updated its target price this Wednesday from 17.65 to 15 euros for the next 12 months and which gives an upward potential of 23%. But the market consensus is much more optimistic with a target price of 21.5 euros and a market run ahead of 75%, the second value with the greatest potential within the Ibex 35 behind Fluidra, according to FactSet.
The last door that has been opened to the company is the . The country wants to achieve 50% self-sufficiency in the production of immunoglobulins (antibodies) and for this it will rely on Grifols and its proven experience in collecting blood and generating plasma in the United States. But this business will not start this year, according to several analysis firms.
From Berenberg they consider that the agreement has potential for the company if it replicates the business that it manages in other countries (buying plasma in the country and then selling derivative products in that territory), but does not believe that it will begin to give results until 2026. The same date set by Banco Sabadell, who estimate that year as the first in which the Grifols plant in Montreal o.
Until this contract signed for 15 years has an impact on the group’s accounts, the future of the United States economy will influence the Spanish company’s business due to its exposure to this market. On the one hand, the rise in interest rates in the country (and in US bond yields) affects Grifols’ debt, 10.6 times its EBITDA, according to Bankinter. On the contrary, the company has in its favor the strength of the dollar -which takes about 12% in the year to the euro- and that during the first half of 2022 65% of its sales came from the US and Canada.
It is the cheapest company in its sector
Not the entire pharmaceutical sector depreciates so far in 2022, but those that are most exposed to the blood business do monopolize the biggest cuts since January 1. And although the drop in the price of Grifols stands out from the rest, the company is the cheapest of all of them according to its PER (times that the profit is included in the share price). The Spanish offers a multiplier of 14.5 times compared to more than 15 for Roche Holding.
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