Almost from the first week in which half the world was confined to their homes, back in the ‘distant’ month of March 2020, the planet has been asking itself the same question: when will the pandemic end? The arrival of covid-19 changed our lives completely, and for the worse, so the general desire is to overcome this global bad drink once and for all. At JP Morgan they launch an extremely optimistic prediction: we can begin to see the light in just a couple of months.
, the company’s global head of quantitative strategy, Marko Kolanovic, assures that the general decrease in cases worldwide and the progress in the global vaccination plan can certify an “effective” end of the pandemic between the end of March and the beginning of April. This is a rather rosy prediction that shortens many of the deadlines forecast by economists and experts in health and epidemiology. Also those considered by the European Commission, which .
The current great stumbling block to recovery is the potential influence of the British variant on a possible reduction in vaccine immunity and an increase in cases and deaths (there are forecasts that speak of one), but at JP Morgan they believe that “there is no is inconsistent with an overall decline and end of the pandemic in the second trimester due to vaccination, natural immunity, seasonality, and other factors.”
Specifically, Kolanovic specifies that “although the data set is still small, statistical analysis of the current vaccination data is consistent with a strong decline in the pandemic between 40 and 70 days.”
The data to which Kolanovic alludes with the following: according to JP Morgan studies, the growing preponderance of the British strain has not prevented cases from falling in those regions where the variant is prevailing and, in parallel, with each increase in 10% in vaccinations is preceded by a decrease of 230 cases per million people.
In addition, Kolanovic emphasizes that the health groups (65 years and older) are being vaccinated first, which have accounted for 85% of deaths and half of hospitalizations, so the effects of vaccination will be more immediate. .
Of course, from JP Morgan they warn that these prediction models, which also take into account that social distancing measures are maintained, contemplate that there are no setbacks in the supply of vaccines and do not take into account the distribution of doses at the level , the differences between countries in the rate of vaccination, as well as the inequalities between regions.
Problems in the supply of vaccines (especially and ) have been somewhat recurrent. In the same way, the differences in the rate of vaccination between countries (some models claim that due to the shortage of vaccines in poor and underdeveloped countries) have also been latent, so these caveats in the JP Morgan forecast must also be as taken into account as the prediction itself.
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