Ibercaja is preparing to try again in the window that will open between April and May after . Until the end of January, everything seemed favorable for a good start on the stock market before the volatility generated by the discourse of a much more hawkish Fed and the conflict provoked by Russia in Ukraine got in the way. Without a brochure yet, the price range with which Ibercaja’s IPO was considered is unofficial, but knowledgeable sources maintain that investors were not willing to pay more than 1,100 million euros for it. This meant assuming a discount of more than 30% per placement and the management of Ibercaja decided to wait.
Investors demand a 15% discount on the value of the entity in view of its jump to the parquet
In a certain sense, the stock market failure has had an opportunity cost since the bank from Zaragoza has been left out of the rally in the sector. However, Ibercaja will take advantage of that same revaluation when it returns to sit down at the investors’ table just after Easter. Not wanting to continue penance. Since Ibercaja submitted its ITF (intention to float) to the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV), the rise in its comparables on the stock market -Unicaja, CaixaBank, and to a lesser extent Sabadell- has caused , indirectly, its valuation rises 20%, going from 1,400 million euros to the current 1,670 million, considering a placement discount of 15%, a “reasonable” percentage, according to sources familiar with the operation.
These same sources acknowledge that “90% of investors” have always taken Unicaja and CaixaBank as a reference to establish this comparison, so it would be logical to think of an average multiplier between the two entities that would apply to the exit of Ibercaja.
If so, the bank chaired by José Luis Aguirre would reach a valuation of 1,650/1,670 million euros, based on a book value of 0.59 times, which is the average price of its two comparables, and already applied a discount for placement of 15%. Less than a month ago, this valuation showed an initial capitalization of 1,400 million euros, 250-270 million below. “The work is done and they know the land they walk on,” say sources consulted by elEconomista, who insist that the only option on the table at this time is an IPO, if possible in April (with the annual results already on the table, presents at the end of February), or, otherwise, we would have to wait for the next June-July window.
Ibercaja aspires to lead remuneration in the sector, with a dividend of more than 7% return
One of the great strengths with which Ibercaja starts off compared to its comparables is the asset manager. One of the strongest in the national sector and, among the listed companies, the one that contributes the most commissions over total income. In total, and other vehicles. There is no similar figure in the sector, for which their respective managers (in many cases, include insurance) account for 30%, on average, of the commissions. With data from September, the management of long-term savings products led him to enter 223 million euros in commissions, 67% of the total of 331.6 million euros, with an increase of 26% compared to 2020, which It is in line with the increase in management volumes. The assets of Ibercaja Gestión reached 18,367 million euros at the end of 2021, 3,118 million or 20% more.
Dividend
Ibercaja plans to raise the payout ratio to 60% of profit -compared to 50% that was considered until January- in order to be more attractive to long-term investors in the April window. It is the highest percentage of listed companies -50% in all cases, except Santander (40%) and Sabadell (30%)-. In addition, this distribution would place Ibercaja as the leader in terms of dividend yield in the sector, beyond 7%.
The entity will allocate some 100 million euros as a dividend charged to the 2021 accounts. At the end of the third quarter, Ibercaja obtained a net profit of 146 million euros, with which, assuming a payout ratio of 60%, the The result could exceed approximately 170 million euros.
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