US intelligence services have already sounded the alarm: the country’s status as a global superpower depends on Washington being able to retain leadership in five key technologies at a time when America’s main rivals are trying to overtake it. in each one of them.
These five technologies identified by US intelligence officials are artificial intelligence, quantum computing, bioscience, semiconductors, and autonomous systems. The concern in Washington is not just that the theft of US technologies by other foreign powers will wrest economic leadership from it in key sectors, but that such dynamics could even threaten the country’s industrial muscle.
The main example is given by these officials in the activities -legal and illegal- carried out by China that have reduced competitiveness in sectors such as steel and solar panels. They have also pointed to China’s elimination of the Australian rail industry as an example.
“We don’t want what happened in those other industries to happen here,” says Michael Orlando, acting director of the National Center for Counterintelligence and Security, which reports to the Director of National Intelligence. When asked what the impact would be if the US loses this global supremacy, he answers bluntly: “It could be serious. We have to focus on these industries because we can’t afford to lose them.”
Intelligence officials, who in recent months have participated in a working group with academics and executives to prepare a report that has now been made public and collected by CNBC, are clear that “these sectors produce technologies that can determine whether the US continues to being the world’s leading superpower or is eclipsed by strategic competitors in the coming years”.
In each area, according to research, rival powers have used the aforementioned mix of legal and illegal methods ranging from recruiting talent to M&A, hacking and old-fashioned espionage to steal and replicate American technology.
Officials and researchers warn that many private sector business leaders do not realize that the approach they receive from Chinese and Russian entities for everything from joint ventures and partnerships to mergers and acquisitions is part of a national strategy by those governments to acquire those technologies and replace the US companies that produce them.
The main fear is that US companies will not only lose their edge, but will be pushed out of crucial 21st century technology sectors altogether. “This is not just about the loss of intellectual property, but about the loss of an entire business model,” warns Edward You, NCSC’s national counterintelligence officer for Emerging and Disruptive Technologies. According to him, vulnerability is especially acute in healthcare technology. “Because of our shortsightedness, we may wake up one day to find that we have become healthcare ‘crackheads’ and China has become our driver.”
In this sense, an aspect of particular concern is that the US loses its ability to develop and manufacture its own supply chain of biological and health products, a vulnerability that became very clear during the pandemic and that could be even worse during the next one, according to you.
Still, intelligence officials stop short of recommending the “decoupling” of the US and Chinese economies, or halting the flow of students and employees from China and Russia, citing an awareness that collaboration can be mutually beneficial. In their report, they detail the risks and situation in each of these key technologies.
Risks in the five technologies
In artificial intelligence, the report concludes that China “possesses the power, talent and ambition to potentially overtake the US as the world leader in AI in the next decade if current trends do not change.” The officials recall the 2020 US indictment against two Chinese hackers working with the Chinese Ministry of State Security for their involvement in a 10-year hacking campaign against a wide range of Western targets, including an AI company with headquarters in the UK. Officials also raised concerns about Russia, citing MIT’s 2019 announcement that it would expand its partnership with Russia’s Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology.
In quantum computing, the report highlights that quantum computers – which can, in principle, use the unique properties of atoms and photons to solve certain problems much faster than ordinary computers – will pose national security and economic challenges. “A large-scale quantum computer could allow the decryption of the most widely used cybersecurity protocols, endangering the infrastructure that protects current economic and national security communications,” they warn while noting that foreign competitors are recruiting American experts to advance their own quantum programs.
In the field of bioscience, this committee of officials and researchers has been especially critical of the Chinese company WuXi Biologics, which acquired Bayer’s manufacturing plant in Germany, Pfizer’s in China, and the CMAB Biopharma group’s in China. The Chinese company is also building manufacturing plants in Delaware, Massachusetts and Ireland. American bioscience companies that produce vaccines and other biotech products may find themselves using Chinese-controlled plants by default.
Regarding semiconductors, the problem is well known. However, the report has highlighted that the US is highly dependent on a single company from Taiwan. It also highlights how foreign rivals can disrupt the supply chain and introduce compromised chips into US defense and trade systems.
Finally, the report concludes that autonomous systems also pose a potential security threat, by broadening the type of target that hackers may pursue in the future and by collecting a huge amount of data from the US. The officials cite a September report revealing that China had illegally bought an Italian-based military drone company in an effort to bundle autonomous technology.
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