Last week it was confirmed that Viscofan will leave the Ibex 35 as of the close of this same Friday, something that investors perceived as a step backwards for the Navarrese firm since its titles fell more than 3% in the following session, standing at lows not seen since November of last year. However, normality continues unaltered for a firm that has very good prospects for the future, despite the fact that Rovi occupies the place that Viscofan has been holding since it entered the index in June 2016.
What is clear is that this departure comes at a time when confidence in Viscofan is through the roof. At least, by the analysts who follow it. According to the consensus of experts collected by FactSet, the recommendation, although it is to maintain, is the best since the beginning of 2013.
Also if we look at the investment banks that Bloomberg compares, where already more than half, 53%, suggest taking positions in the manufacturer of food packaging while only 14% prefer to undo them. Combining the consensus of one aggregator and the other comes out The Ibex League of elEconomista, in which this firm has been climbing positions in recent months to rank 25.
“We believe that the current price levels, after the fall caused by the announcement of the withdrawal of the Ibex 35, places Viscofan as a good investment opportunity,” explains Beatriz Rodríguez, an analyst at GVC Gaesco. In this sense, Viscofan had never stood out either for its recommendation or for its upward potential, which already rises above 16% from its current levels when the Bloomberg consensus places its target price for the next 12 months at almost 64 euros per share.
inflationary pressure
Viscofan has always behaved like a stock that has performed well at difficult times in the cycle due to the more defensive nature of its business. In fact, during the past year, while the Ibex lost more than 15% due to the pandemic crisis, the titles of the Navarrese firm appreciated almost 30%.
However, this year Viscofan’s paper has lost close to 5% on the stock market. “The main risks that the company faces, as is the case with a large part of the market, would be the current supply crisis and the inflation of raw material and transportation costs,” Rodríguez explains. “However, last year’s supply policy has allowed the company to cover its back this year and for next year we think it will continue to have different tools that will allow it to maintain EBITDA margins of 26% despite the circumstances,” adds the expert. “Its technological efficiency, the increase in volumes sold, the energy coverage and the reduction in the price of collagen will be the main counterweights to overcome the increase in costs that has occurred”, argue Bankinter.
profit growth
All in all, Viscofan maintains the visibility of its benefits intact. The average of the analysts foresees that this year, with 133 million. And with a view to the next two years, an additional increase of 13% is expected, up to 150 million euros. As explained by Bankinter, “their latest results beat expectations, setting a new record for the group.” “Its exposure to emerging markets, especially China, is, and we believe it will be, its greatest lever for growth,” they add. China already represents over 5% of its total annual sales, and double-digit growth is expected, while in developed countries, although they are more stable markets, the rate will be between 2 and 3% per year.
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