The state of alarm ends on May 9 and the Government maintains the intention that it end on that date after six months in operation. Meanwhile, some autonomous communities such as the Basque one are asking for it to be extended and others such as the Catalan one are working on legislation that allows them to maintain restrictions such as the curfew. Here are three possible scenarios.
Scenario 1: the state of alarm is not extended and closures and curfew decline
If it is not extended, the state of alarm will end on May 9. An ending of an emergency situation that will cause the fall of four concrete measures:
1. Curfew: the suspension of the freedom of movement of people at night
2. Perimeter closure: the limitation of the entrances and exits of the autonomous communities
3. Meetings: the prohibition of meetings of more than six people in both public and private spaces.
4. Capacity places of worship.
Despite the fall of these measures, the autonomous communities and the Government may continue to restrict mobility. Specifically, various experts consulted by Europa Press explain that in a situation of no state of alarm, fundamental rights can be limited, but only in very defined and individualized cases, using the Organic Law on Special Measures in Public Health Matters of 1986.
This law in its article three states that in order to control communicable diseases, the health authority, in addition to carrying out general preventive actions, may adopt the appropriate measures to control the sick, the people who are or have been in contact with them and the immediate environment, as well as those considered necessary in the event of a risk of a transmissible nature.
Based on this, the experts indicate that perimeter closures could still be seen, but they would be from health zones, neighborhoods or, at most, from cities, never from an entire autonomous community. In addition, those closures that would be adopted by decree would have to have the endorsement of the courts. In this way, they point out that it returns to the situation that was experienced last summer, and that the regional administrations could, for example, restrict commercial and hospitality hours.
Scenario 2: a state of alarm is extended on demand by autonomous communities
The fourth wave of the pandemic is evolving differently between the autonomous communities. Thus, while the Basque Country has a 15-day cumulative incidence of 516 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the Valencian Community has one of 44.17 cases. Given this situation, it is possible that a state of alarm will only be established in the communities that are worst off and that request it.
This is a possibility allowed by the Spanish Constitution. Specifically, section 2 of article 116 of the Magna Carta says that the decree of the state of alarm “will determine the territorial scope to which the effects of the declaration extend.” This is an option that has already been put on the table by the socialist Idoia Mendia, deputy lehendakari of the Basque government.
In addition, it should be remembered that this situation already took place on October 9, when the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, decreed a state of alarm in the Community of Madrid in order to maintain the perimeter confinement, when the regional president, Isabel Díaz, refused Ayuso, to agree on a legal formula that would preserve the closure ordered by the Ministry of Health and annulled yesterday by the Superior Court of Justice of the Community. Later, on October 25, he declared a state of alarm for all of Spain.
Scenario 3: the state of alarm is not extended, but closures and curfew are maintained
Given the possibility that the state of alarm will not be renewed, the autonomous communities are working on modifications to their regulations with the aim of maintaining important restrictions without the state of alarm. This is the case of the Government of Catalonia, which is preparing a regulatory framework that allows it to apply the night curfew in Catalonia from May 9.
As explained by the Minister of the Presidency, Meritxell Budó, after the weekly meeting of the Government, the Executive is “studying mechanisms to provide itself with a regulatory framework in case it is necessary to decree a curfew”, a “legal umbrella” which could also be applicable in the case of mobility restrictions.
The minister has also recalled that, if the Government of Pedro Sánchez chooses not to extend the state of alarm, as it has announced in recent days, all decisions made by the Generalitat on mobility limitations will require the authorization of the Superior Court of Justice of Catalonia (TSJC), so they will not be “immediately” applicable. “We will need the three days that the TSJC has from when it receives the request for the measure from the Government until it resolves (…). That will change the way of managing the restrictions”, she has affirmed.
Likewise, he has admitted that the curfew is a “drastic” but “necessary” measure, since, he recalled, the epidemiological data is improving but there are still some 500 people admitted to critical care beds in Catalonia.
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