The recovery of la seems to have a near end. Although the estimates do not match if you ask the affected companies.
According to a study by the consulting firm Bain & Company, the automotive industry and industry will be the sectors that recover the demand for semiconductors first, which has been completely altered since the end of 2020. However, this recovery will not be homogeneous in all sectors. . From Bain & Company they aim at the end of this year and the beginning of 2023 so that the bottlenecks in the supply of these sectors begin to improve.
With the presentation of the results corresponding to the first quarter in sight, conglomerates such as BMW or Volkswagen have questioned these estimates. In the case of the Bavarian group, it foresees that the shortage will last until 2023; while the German car giant believes that it will not be until 2024 when the supply of semiconductors is sufficient to fully meet the demand.
“We are still at the height of the chip shortage,” BMW Group Chairman Oliver Zipse acknowledged in an interview with the German newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung. “I hope we start to see improvements no later than next year, but we will still have to deal with a fundamental shortage in 2023,” the BMW boss detailed. This means extending the initial forecast that the German group had in its annual press conference, which handled the end of this shortage for this year.
The same is true of the Volkswagen Group. The financial director of the German consortium, Arno Antlitz, in an interview with the German newspaper Boersen-Zeitung has assured that it is “unlikely” that the supply of chips will be sufficient to fully satisfy the demand until 2024. However, the manager has assured that although bottlenecks are likely to start to ease towards the end of this year, with production returning to 2019 levels next year, this would not be enough to meet the increased demand for chips.
Faced with this situation, in Spain, the employers’ association of car and truck manufacturers . Neither 2020 nor 2021 saw the figures achieved in 219, the year before the pandemic, when 1.2 million units were sold in our country. And it is that the figure considered healthy by the sector is between 1.2 and 1.5 million sales.
Thus, the estimates for this year is that global sales of semiconductors reach 613,523 million dollars (564,051 million euros), which will mean an increase of 10.4% compared to the 555,893 million dollars achieved in 2021, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS).
The semiconductor market will grow by 10.2% in 2022
By region, the greatest growth is expected for America, with 141,386 million dollars (129,984 million euros), which would mean 16.4% more in the interannual rate. Europe would follow with an estimated turnover of 52,918 million dollars (48,649 million euros), 10.8% more than what was achieved in 2021. Likewise, the Asia-Pacific region would reach sales this year worth 371,291 million dollars (341,360 million euros), 8.3% more in the interannual rate. Likewise, Japan would achieve sales worth 47,928 million dollars (44,064 million euros), 9.7% compared to what was achieved in 2021.
Other sectors
At the other extreme, Bain & Company estimates that the shortage will make it difficult for several sectors until 2024, such as game consoles and computer servers.
This is because demand for these products has skyrocketed during the pandemic, and these suppliers lack the financial resources to build factories that can produce the components quickly enough to meet the growing demand.
In the case of consumer electronics, the consultancy predicts that products such as mobile phones and tablets will recover from semiconductor shortages next year. These products rely on 6-, 8-, and 12-inch wafers, which are in increasing supply, and also use other types of semiconductors that have become more widely available.
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