Much has been written and is being written about the immediate, but someone should be thinking about or an annual application of some. Which Spain do we want? What role do you want it to play on the board of the European and global economy? . In my opinion, as an analyst of the economy in the international geostrategic field, Spain is at risk of having a hegemonic role or not in the next 20 years, years that are going to be key to lighting up the entire horizon of the 21st century. This is how it has traditionally been in the Economy, big changes need strategy, intelligence for the sum of wills, perseverance in their application, control, monitoring, and leaders with a vision of the country. They go beyond the immediate headline in which it seems that every day they want to introduce us and to which we economists must refuse.
If we look back, and without going into analyzing the excellent work of colleagues in relation to very certain economic cycles, we can say that the beginning of the 21st century has been tumultuous, it has not left us calm and I honestly believe that we have not known how to “read it”. “even in its depth. We have been in business for 20 years, pay attention to the data: 20 years. Indeed, without being exhaustive and just to cite some relevant facts, we ended the 20th century with the blows of the economic collapse of the Soviet Union and its disintegration (1990-1991), later the Asian crisis (1997) with the devaluation of the Thai currency. it had a domino effect in other countries in the area such as Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, or Korea, among others, and gave rise to what we call one of the first major crises of the globalized economy. With this situation we started the 21st century and we have a new currency in the euro area – with all that this has entailed in terms of adjustments and changes. On September 11, 2001, a brutal event occurred with far-reaching consequences for geopolitics and global security strategy: We were, therefore, at the beginning of this 21st century when, in 2007-2008, one of the biggest financial crises hit us. of recent world history, to which we must devote much time and effort and in which, again, no room was left for long-term thinking.
A long-term country strategy is needed within the framework of the European Union
When we were beginning to emerge from it, and at the level of Spain several “waves” of far-reaching structural reforms had been launched, there were two more important additional events, one at the European level: -quoted here for the destabilizing attempt that it entailed – and another at a global level: COVID-19, with all that it has implied and will imply. And all this without mentioning the populist movements that exist in some European countries, to which a resounding response must be given from the institutions and countries, and to which a certain wave of trying to bet on an erroneous protectionist modernism is added, the irruption of cyberattacks in all areas -institutional, business and political-, fake news, the hegemonic struggle between China and the USA or the classic tensions in the Middle East.
In short, these brief samples indicate that the first fifth of the 21st century has brought us very relevant changes and events, which cannot be ignored and which are marking the future of the next 20 years. The country that knows how to “read” its role on this new game board and prepares its society for it, will be a winning country and, therefore, its citizens too. On the other hand, whoever doesn’t, who only looks inward and in a localist key, will be in the queue, will lose. As in a previous column, he justified and advocated for a “New Breton Woods”, in Spain we need a “long-term country strategy within the framework of the EU”, as we did 45 years ago. It is evident that that strategy has brought us numerous positive effects, to all of Spain, to our institutions, citizens, companies and organizations in general, as we already demonstrated with the study “45 years of economic, social, business and institutional evolution of Spain. A global vision 1975-2020” that we direct from the General Council of Economists of Spain.
This second wave of impulse must be marked and taken advantage of knowing how to interpret in which keys we move, stopping looking at the immediate and acting with high vision. What we do not do, no one is going to do for us. Spain must be Europe, and Europe must be Spain, referring to the fact that we are stronger by strengthening the European institutions and vice versa, while we demand our leadership in this entire process. For an example, it is enough to cite the recent European funds () that must be dedicated, yes or yes, to the productive economy of our country; its transparency, allocation and development will be a leading index and a historic opportunity to show where we want to be.
Those who only look inward and in a localist key will not have a relevant role
I find it, sometimes paradoxical and sometimes disturbing, to read that the role of the EU is not relevant, logically said, or due to a great lack of knowledge, or due to very personal interests that should be explained. The European Union, as Bradford indicates in his recent book “The Brussels effect”, guides and leads many of the standards, requirements, vanguards and economic, commercial, legal, educational and social relations, not only at a European level, but also globally. Denying it is ridiculous. A market as broad and prepared as that of the EU is a market that must be influenced and built from within. For example, without going into other considerations, does anyone really believe that companies in the United Kingdom are not going to have to follow the rules and requirements that emanate from the EU if they want to sell their products and services in Europe, partner with other companies in the euro zone in its growth outside these limits or similar?, the difference is that before they could influence from within, and now they will have to accept it from outside.
In short, all the current terms related to business digitization, artificial intelligence, resilience, industry 5.0, size of SMEs, future sectors, fiscal policies for growth, positioning in value chains or others, are vectors or levers. of growth that do not admit discussion; but it is in its concretion and especially its execution that it should have been for a long time, the months go by and the other countries are acting. Now what I would have to do, in addition to the aforementioned executive actions, is to think about what our role is in promoting the 21st century. The next few years are going to be key, and we must dedicate time, intelligence and resources to that. True, it may be easier said than done, but let’s do it.
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